There is no agreed arrival date. New model records do not automatically resolve reliability, experience transfer and generality.
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Select a capability and follow its connections to the core. AGI is shown here as memory, reasoning, action and verification working together.
Conceptual diagram. Its controls do not measure progress or predict dates.
About this eventIn the AI Futures sample, estimates updated in early 2026 shifted earlier, but this is not a scientific consensus.
AGI forecasts are highly sensitive to definitions, expert sampling and recent model demonstrations. A shift in several estimates is useful as a sentiment indicator but does not prove acceleration on a measurable scale, so the map separates forecasts from confirmed technological milestones.
Source: AI FuturesAbout this eventFutureSearch's April 12 archive shows differences between AGI definitions and individual forecast updates. Its sample is neither a scientific consensus nor a fresh September forecast.
About this eventIn his 2026 outlook, Stanford HAI's James Landay did not expect AGI that year. This is one researcher's forecast, published December 15, 2025, not a position shared by all academia.
About this eventLabs and academia use different criteria. Without a shared yardstick, "achieved" will be declared before it happens.
About this eventThe most honest check is the share of jobs a system completes end to end and gets paid for by the market rather than a jury.
Primary material behind this dossier: papers, lab publications and official reports.